Description:

CLIMAAX-NIC will use the geographical area of the Municipality of Nicosia as a testbed to assess multiple climate risks implementing the CLIMAAX methodological framework. These risks include flooding, urban heat island (UHI) effect and damages to vegetation due to prolonged heat. These risks are expected to become more severe and frequent due to climate change; regional climate risk analyses wil be performed, to improve the existing local climate and emergency risk management plans. These analyses will include targeted and specific recommendations for climate change adaptation actions. The outcomes of this project will become an integral part of the existing strategic master plan of the Republic of Cyprus (ZENON), and the Nicosia Municipality Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plan 2021-2030.

Regarding flooding, it has traditionally been a low risk. However, climate change has increasingly amplified the risks of flooding, due to intense rainfall events, urbanization that led to reduced green spaces and natural water-absorbing areas as well as the city's infrastructure, particularly its drainage systems, which is outdated and underprepared for intense weather patterns. Flooding in Nicosia can cause infrastructure damages, especially to roads and transportation as well as buildings. Heavy rains can flood roads, bridges, and underpasses, causing severe traffic disruptions. Nicosia’s road network, particularly in low-lying areas or near old drainage systems, can be submerged, disrupting daily commuting and economic activities. Also, floodwaters can infiltrate homes, businesses, and public buildings, causing structural damages. This can lead to expensive repairs and displacement of residents. Further, there is the probability of contaminating water sources, both surface and groundwater, via sewage or pollutants. This can lead to the spread of waterborne diseases such as dysentery and other gastrointestinal infections, particularly if the city’s sewage systems overflow.

Regarding the UHI effect , it is becoming a significant concern as climate change increases the already hot conditions in the city. The UHI effect refers to the tendency of urban areas to become significantly warmer than their rural surroundings due to human activities, infrastructure, and development patterns. Nicosia experiences hot Mediterranean summers with average daily temperatures exceeding 36°C. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, raising the overall temperature and magnifying the UHI effect. The extensive use of materials like concrete and asphalt intensifies the UHI effect, by absorbing heat through the day and releasing it at night. The UHI effect increases the need for air conditioning and cooling systems in buildings, leading to a surge in energy consumption and higher greenhouse gas emissions. Rising temperatures, combined with the UHI effect, pose significant public health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly.

Regarding the damages to vegetation due to heatwaves risk, as the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and drought periods increase, natural vegetation faces multiple challenges that can significantly disrupt ecosystems and food production. Most crops have specific temperature ranges for optimal growth. Prolonged heat exposes plants to temperatures above their threshold, causing heat stress, which can reduce their ability to photosynthesize, grow, and produce yields. Crops like wheat, olives, citrus, and vegetables, commonly grown in Cyprus, are highly susceptible to prolonged periods of high heat. Heat stress can cause wilting, reduced flowering, and lower fruit set, directly impacting yields. Prolonged heat can cause crops to ripen prematurely, leading to poor quality produce that may not meet market standards in terms of size, taste, or appearance. Prolonged heat can create favorable conditions for pests such as aphids, mites, and whiteflies.

All the three risks mentioned above require and justify appropriate and elaborate climate risk analyses, employing state-of-art methodologies and frameworks, such as the CLIMAAX one. These analyses will contribute to effectively improve the existing local climate and emergency risk management plans of Nicosia in particular and Cyprus as a whole. Employing the CLIMAAX framework, this will allow to harmonize the risk assessment process around Europe, sharing results and learning from best practices, especially those applied in other regions which implement this framework.

Techniques used: Aerial photography, Multispectral satellite Sensing, Artifical Intelligence, Computer Vision, Modelling, Geospatial Analytics.

Collaboration with: Municipality of Nicosia (Coordinator)

Started: March 2025

Status: On-going

Publications:

• Savvas Karatsiolis, Panos Hadjinicolaou, Chirag Padubidri and Andreas Kamilaris, Decomposing Urban Heat Islands at Micro-Level: A Hybrid Physics-Inspired and Data-Driven Modelling Framework, Urban Climate Journal, vol. 69, no. 103113, ISSN 2212-0955, September, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103113
• Savvas Karatsiolis and Andreas Kamilaris, Spectral Feature Refinement: Enhancing Robustness to Image Corruptions, International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks (ICANN 2026), Padua, Italy, September, 2026.

Funding: CLIMAAX-NIC is funded by the European Union as part of the cascade funding call of the CLIMAAX Climate Ready Regions project.